Архітектура безпеки Європи в системі міжнародних вдіносин XXI століття

Abstract

This article analyses the transformation of the security architecture in the system of international relations in the light of Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine in 2022, which became not only an armed challenge but also a catalyst for fundamental changes in the strategic thinking of states, regional alliances, and international organisations. Based on an analytical study by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), the article examines the evolution of key European security institutions: NATO, the OSCE and the European Union, as well as national policies of individual countries, in particular Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, in the context of the formation of a new security configuration in Europe. Particular attention is paid to five scenarios of possible development of the European security architecture by 2035-2050: from the antagonistic model of constant confrontation to the option of strategic autonomy (European Defence Union), fragmented security (Patchwork) and a long-term model of cooperative coexistence. The article provides a conceptual analysis of the role of the European Union, Germany, and the United States in the transformation of the transatlantic security model, with a focus on the issues of strategic autonomy and EU responsibility for its own defence capabilities. Several theoretical approaches are used: neorealism, constructivism, complex interdependence theory and poststructuralism to comprehensively explain new trends in the security sphere. As a result, it is concluded that the collapse of the post-bipolar liberal order has led to a shift from integrative security models to paradigms of deterrence, adaptation, and autonomy. In this context, Europe is facing a civilisational challenge: either it will acquire geostrategic subjectivity or risk being on the periphery of the new global order of forces.